What’s Going on with California LCFS Credit Prices?

 By Brad Pleima, P.E., President, EcoEngineers


One of the hottest topics within the renewable fuels industry is “What is going on with LCFS credit pricing?” California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard continues to drive development and investment into renewable fuels and market participants have become accustomed to LCFS credit prices in the $175-200 per metric ton (MT) range. However, credit prices have been on the decline over the past several months leading to questions like “how low will LCFS credit prices go?” and “what is the short-, medium-, and long-term outlook for the program?”

EcoEngineers recently analyzed 10 years of LCFS data to project fuel supply, deficit and credit generation, and pricing analysis to estimate fuel supply and credit pricing trends from 2022-2025 and 2025-2030. We also conducted a virtual roundtable, and several experts joined me in discussing these important questions, including EcoEngineers RNG Services Director Dave Lindenmuth; Carbon Consultant Chelsa Anderson, who is the lead author of our RFS/RIN analysis report; and Dr. Roxby Hartley, who — along with EcoEngineers CEO Shashi Menon — is the lead author of our LCFS Fuel Supply & Pricing Analysis Report.

Dr. Hartley also outlined this analysis in more detail in a recent thought leadership article here.

Our hope is that these thought leadership articles and roundtable video will shed some light on why LCFS credit prices are falling. After watching our video, feel free to reach out to any of us with questions, comments, or thoughts on our discussion.

Read the video transcript 


Brad Pleima headshot

Brad Pleima, P.E.

Brad Pleima, P.E., is President of EcoEngineers, a consulting and auditing firm that specializes in low-carbon fuels and decarbonization strategies. He has nearly 20 years of consulting and engineering design experience in water, wastewater, and renewable energy project work. He is a licensed Professional Engineer in 10 states. For more information on asset development, decarbonization strategies, or EcoEngineers, contact Brad at bpleima@ecoengineers.us.